.png){kind=logo}
Tiếng Việt
English
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating fresh volatility across global financial markets. However, according to the latest assessment from market strategists, Brent crude is unlikely to surge to $100 per barrel in the near term. Meanwhile, gold continues to strengthen its long-term safe-haven outlook, with projections extending toward $6,000 per ounce by early 2027.
Mr. Heng Koon How, Head of Market Strategy, Global Economics & Markets Research at United Overseas Bank (UOB), shared updated forecasts covering oil, gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S. inflation dynamics.
Following the escalation of tensions involving Iran and the broader Middle East, Brent Crude opened the Asian trading week with a sharp jump to around $82 per barrel before easing back to approximately $76 later in the morning session.
With renewed attacks involving the U.S., Israel, and retaliatory responses from Iran targeting certain Gulf assets, concerns have emerged that Brent could surge to the $100 per barrel mark.
However, Heng emphasized that such expectations may be premature.
“In our view, it is still too early. The global energy market remains adequately supplied. The current backdrop is completely different from February 2022 when Russia launched its campaign in Ukraine,” he said.
According to Heng, the latest escalation in Iran and the Middle East is more serious than last year’s U.S. missile strike on an Iranian nuclear facility. Iran has responded selectively by targeting certain military-related assets linked to the U.S. in Gulf countries. Several regional aviation hubs, including Dubai’s key international airport, have faced temporary closures, disrupting air travel and cargo operations.
Many shipping companies have suspended operations through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran has not officially declared a closure of the Strait, congestion has been reported on both sides — in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Despite the alarming escalation, Heng highlighted that a key “red line” has not been crossed: Iran has not publicly attacked regional energy infrastructure nor directly targeted commercial oil tankers operating in Gulf waters.
If such actions occur, energy supply flows through the region could be severely disrupted, potentially pushing Brent toward $100 per barrel.
UOB has revised its quarterly projections as follows:
Q2–Q3 2026: $80 per barrel
Q4 2026 – Q1 2027: $70 per barrel
While short-term risks could lift Brent toward the $80 range, the likelihood of de-escalation combined with ample supply from OPEC is expected to limit excessive upside.
“At this stage, it is too early to expect energy prices to surge toward $100,” Heng reiterated.
Investors will need to closely monitor whether higher energy prices spill over into inflation, increasing inflation risks in the United States.
At the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed), markets are likely to question how rising energy prices may impact the U.S. inflation outlook.
Brent prices around $80 per barrel could make short-term inflation more persistent. UOB currently maintains its expectation that the Fed will implement two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts — one in June and another in the third quarter.
However, investors must closely watch the risk that the Fed may face delays or greater difficulty in cutting rates in the second half of the year if inflation pressures re-emerge.
A particularly important indicator is U.S. domestic gasoline prices. This metric is closely monitored by investors and policymakers, including the White House. It could become especially sensitive ahead of midterm elections if gasoline prices rise above $4 per gallon and move back toward the $5 level.
Before the Iran escalation, gold had been consolidating around $5,000 per ounce following a sharp profit-taking correction from $5,500 to $4,600 per ounce at the end of January.
This morning, gold rebounded above $5,300 per ounce.
Despite short-term volatility, long-term safe-haven demand remains firmly intact. Central banks worldwide continue to accumulate gold reserves, while retail investors are increasing physical gold purchases. The renewed Iran tensions further reinforce this defensive demand.
UOB now projects the following trajectory:
Q2 2026: $5,400/oz
Q3 2026: $5,600/oz
Q4 2026: $5,800/oz
Q1 2027: $6,000/oz
Previously, UOB had forecast gold at $4,800/oz in Q1 2026, $5,000/oz in Q2 2026, $5,200/oz in Q3 2026, and $5,400/oz in Q4 2026. The updated projections reflect a more bullish long-term view.
In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) opened slightly higher, rising about 0.2% to 97.80.
While risk sentiment may provide short-term support for the U.S. dollar, its longer-term trajectory remains downward unless the Fed signals renewed inflation risks and hesitates to cut rates later this year.
In summary:
Brent crude may experience short-term volatility but is unlikely to surge to $100 per barrel without a direct disruption to regional energy infrastructure.
Gold continues to benefit from strong safe-haven demand, central bank accumulation, and expectations of monetary easing.
As geopolitical risks intersect with global monetary policy uncertainty, investors should remain vigilant. If tensions remain contained below the critical “red line,” oil prices may stabilize. Gold, however, appears positioned for a sustained upward trajectory toward $6,000 per ounce by early 2027.
